Crypto World / Research / Options

Options-implied move

What Binance's options market is currently pricing for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Recorded data 23 Sep 2026, 17:37 IST

Binance lists options on a small number of assets. This page covers the 2 with recorded ladders — Bitcoin and Ethereum. Other venues are not included.

What the options market currently implies

One-standard-deviation market-implied moves for the listed expiries nearest the existing reference periods.

Expiry

2 Oct 2026

8.8 days away

Nearest listed contract to 7 days

ATM IV: 34.80%
Implied move: ±5.41%
On Rs 1.00L: Rs 5,409.27
ATM strike: $86000
Put / call OI: 1.20
Max pain: $81000

Over 8.8 days, the options market currently implies a one-standard-deviation move of ±5.41%. The market-priced band is not a forecast or a ceiling.

Expiry

30 Oct 2026

36.8 days away

Nearest listed contract to 30 days

ATM IV: 36.70%
Implied move: ±11.66%
On Rs 1.00L: Rs 11,656.14
ATM strike: $86000
Put / call OI: 1.35
Max pain: $76000

Over 36.8 days, the options market currently implies a one-standard-deviation move of ±11.66%. The market-priced band is not a forecast or a ceiling.

Historical realised volatility

A separate backward-looking measure for Bitcoin.

43.13%

Bitcoin's trailing 30-day realised volatility, annualised from its own daily closes. Implied volatility describes current options prices; realised volatility describes historical price movement. These are different measurements of different periods.

Every listed expiry

Nearest expiry first · At-the-money implied volatility and market-implied move for Bitcoin.

Implied volatility, implied move, open interest and max pain by expiry for Bitcoin. Rows remain in expiry order.
Expiry	Days	ATM IV	Implied move	On Rs 1.00L	Put / call OI	Max pain	Open interest	Strikes
24 Sep 2026	0.8	35.00%	±1.66%	Rs 1,657.77	1.78	$86000	Rs 1177.03 Cr	34 / 34
25 Sep 2026	1.8	35.80%	±2.53%	Rs 2,527.17	1.24	$80000	Rs 10043.34 Cr	57 / 57
26 Sep 2026	2.8	34.20%	±3.01%	Rs 3,005.49	1.44	$86000	Rs 93.90 Cr	16 / 16
2 Oct 2026	8.8	34.80%	±5.41%	Rs 5,409.27	1.20	$81000	Rs 1518.80 Cr	33 / 33
9 Oct 2026	15.8	35.50%	±7.39%	Rs 7,390.42	2.32	$84000	Rs 792.92 Cr	20 / 20
30 Oct 2026	36.8	36.70%	±11.66%	Rs 11,656.14	1.35	$76000	Rs 4128.75 Cr	49 / 49
27 Nov 2026	64.8	38.30%	±16.14%	Rs 16,139.98	0.69	$80000	Rs 787.95 Cr	42 / 42
25 Dec 2026	92.8	38.90%	±19.62%	Rs 19,616.49	1.34	$80000	Rs 2178.69 Cr	45 / 45
26 Mar 2027	183.8	39.70%	±28.17%	Rs 28,173.39	0.99	$70000	Rs 133.43 Cr	37 / 38
25 Jun 2027	274.8	40.20%	±34.88%	Rs 34,882.12	0.53	$80000	Rs 43.46 Cr	31 / 42

The strikes column shows how many listed strikes carry open interest. Max-pain figures rest on that count; an expiry with fewer than 10 is marked thin. None currently carry that mark. Open interest is the US dollar value reported by Binance, converted to rupees at the recorded rate.

Implied volatility term structure

At-the-money implied volatility (%) across listed expiries, using the same readings as the table above.

How to read the implied move

An option's price implies an annualised volatility. This page averages the call and put IV at the strike nearest the recorded spot price, then scales it to the actual time remaining: IV × √(days ÷ 365).

The result is a market-priced one-standard-deviation move. Under the model assumption, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band and about a third fall outside. It is not a forecast, a price ceiling or a guarantee. The rupee figure applies the percentage to a fixed Rs 1.00L reference position; no currency conversion produces that move.

How max pain is computed

For each candidate settlement strike, add the aggregate option-holder payout implied by current call and put open interest. Max pain is the strike where that total is smallest.

It is an arithmetic property of current open interest and changes when open interest changes. Whether it influences settlement is disputed; this page does not take a position on it.

About this data

Implied volatility, strikes and open interest come from Binance's options market. Strikes remain in US dollars; aggregate open interest is displayed in rupees using the recorded USD/INR rate. The ATM strike uses this site's already-recorded spot price (Rs 8199677.00, converted at 95.6478 to $85727.78), without a second spot-price fetch.

Figures are recorded market data, not live quotes. The page does not contact a provider while rendering.

Informational only, not investment advice. The figures on this page are market data recorded from third-party sources at the times shown. They are not a live quote, they may be delayed or incomplete, and nothing here is a suggestion about what to do with any asset. This site does not hold funds and cannot place an order.